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Fleet Forecast for Area - E

Issued by the National Meteorological Center, Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka.
Valid period: 2021.05.17/0600UTC to 2021.05.17/1400UTC
Issued at 0000UTC on 2021.05.17
To: CBO Radio/Fisheries/SL Navy/CBO Port/Coast Guard

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TAUKTAE” over east-central Arabian sea, lay centered at 1500Z of 16th May,
near latitude 17.2°N and longitude 72.3°E. It is very likely to intensify further. The system is likely to
move nearly north-northwestwards and cross Gujarat coast India during 18th May. Intermittent
showers/T’showers, Strong winds and Rough seas can be expected in the above sea area.

Synoptic situation:-

ITCZ is approximately along: 10N 60E, 10N 70E, 11N 80E, 04N 90E, 07N 100E
Shear line is approximately along: 02S 60E, 08S 70E, 02S 80E, 02S 90E, 02N 100E

North of ITCZ:
East of 80E: SW'ly or VRB / (10-15) kts.

In-between ITCZ and Shear line:
West of 72E: SW'ly to W'ly / (10-20) kts; gusting up to (25-30) kts in sections 00, 05, 20 and 25.
In between 72E and 82E: W'ly to NW'ly/(10-20)kts; gusting up to 25 kts in section 30.
East of 82E : SW'ly / (10-15) kts, gusting up yo 20 kts in section 35.

South of Shear line:
West of 70E: SE'ly to S'ly/(10-20) kts, gusting upto 25 kts in section 60.
In between 70E and 80E: E'ly to SE'ly / (20-25) kts, gusting up to (30-35) kts in sections 45, 65 and 80.
East of 80E: SE'ly to E'ly / (10-20)kts, gusting up to 25 kts in section 85.


OCNL Showers / T’Showers in section : 50, 55, 65, 70 and 80
SCT Showers / T’Showers in sections : 00, 05, 15, 25, 30, 35, 45, 60, 75 and 85
ISOL showers/T'showers in sections : 10, 20 and 40

Rough in sections: 00, 65 and 80
Fairly rough to rough in section: 85
Fairly rough, rough at times in section: 70 and 20
Moderate to fairly rough in sections : 05 and 55
Moderate in sections : 25, 45, 60 and 75
Slight to moderate elsewhere.


The next Fleet Forecast will be issued at 1200 UTC, 2021.05.17